Nova Década: as mudanças sociais que virão

O especialista em "negócios sociais" (social business) Rod Schwartz, debatedor do site Social Edge (da Skoll Foundation), apresenta as suas previsões de mudanças na economia.

O autor afirma que não citou nas previsões o que chamou de mudanças óbvias, ou seja, aquelas que considera que apareceriam em qualquer lista, como nas questões ambientais.

Schwartz dá destaque a três mudanças importantes, que estarão na pauta dos movimentos sociais ao longo dos próximos dez anos:

- Uma restruturação do Estado de Bem Estar (Welfare State)
- A fragmentação da economia e a desintermediação do investimento
- A feminização da economia.

É uma interessante e bem provocativa análise, como costumam ser os seus artigos. Leia, a seguir:

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Three Predictions for the Next Decade in Social Entrepreneurship
Rod Schwartz

(...)
Below are the three trends that I believe will shape our economy, but especially the Social Economy. I have intentionally omitted any development related to the environment, because I felt these were obvious, and focused instead on three that might appear on fewer other lists:

· The restructuring of welfare states
· The fragmentation of the economy and the disintermediation of investment
· The feminization of the economy

The State

In nearly every western state we have been living beyond our means. Demographic factors guarantee this will get much worse—yet we have ignored these warnings and urged our leaders to give us “jam today”, without a thought for tomorrow. Well, the chickens have come home to roost. Debates rage about the size, speed and scope of budget cuts, but we ignore the main issue—the limits to what our state can actually afford. There are great moral battles to come (over health/pensions expenditure, for example), many with a strong inter-generational aspect. Yet alternatives to state provision must be found and I have no doubt that social and community enterprises can play a big role in closing the gap.

· To what extent?
· In which sectors?
· How do we overcome the quandary for those on the left, who run many social enterprises and are feeling like they are doing the bidding of the right?

Fragmentation and Disintermediation

Big sucks. We found this during the banking crisis and I believe the next ten years will show large constructs in many fields to have feet of clay. Our networked economy will reward the small, entrepreneurial and “fleet of foot” over the monolithic. There was a time when big was better—that time has passed. This trend is beneficial to smaller, younger social enterprises. It also will impact how these get funded. The days when the sector relies solely on large foundations and governments are coming to an end as people-power (crowdfunding) comes to the fore. Social businesses with the capacity and skill to attract these funds will enjoy a competitive advantage.

· Where will this shift open up opportunities the fastest?
· How should social enterprises prepare?

The Feminized Economy

Female CEOs are substantially over-represented in the social sector. If the sector continues to grow faster than the mainstream, as I expect, the economy becomes “feminized”, by definition. In my Social Edge post of November 2009 I stated that “women are better equipped at exhibiting balance—at being aware of and acting in accordance with a wide-range of conflicting objectives”, than men. Our economy needs balance and less of the testosterone inspired “profit max at all costs” approach which got us into this mess. I forecast that many economic actors will take a more balanced approach to setting and achieving objectives. This does not mean all progress in this regard will be to the credit of women only, but I feeel this is a more eye-catching title than the more PC alternatives.

Fonte: Social Edge