Ministro britânico da energia: petróleo a 100 dólares viabiliza energias limpas

O AUMENTO DO PREÇO DO PETRÓLEO PODERÁ VIABILIZAR AS FONTES ALTERNATIVAS DE ENERGIA MAIS RÁPIDO DO QUE SE ESPERAVA

O ministro da Energia da Grã Bretanha, Chris Huhne, declarou em conferência realizada no dia 03 de março, que se o preço do petróleo alcançar 100 dólares/barril as tecnologias limpas e de baixa emissão de carbono para a geração de energia passarão a ser economicamente viáveis.

E o preço do petróleo está aumentando rapidamente, impulsionado pelo crescimento da demanda mundial, principalmente da China e pela crise política nos países árabes. Alguns analistas acham que se a alta não for contida, estaremos diante de mais uma crise do petróleo.

Há um século, mil taxis movidos a motores elétricos circulavam na cidade de Nova York. A tecnologia foi abandonada devido ao preço irrisório do petróleo. Agora, automóveis elétricos retomam as ruas rapidamente e outras tecnologias de geração eólica e solar crescem na matriz energética mundial, embora, em diversos países, os avanços acontecem graças a crescentes subsídios governamentais. Com o crescimento do preço do petróleo, as fontes alternativas de energia voltarão a ser competitivas com o petróleo, e a transição para uma economia de baixo carbono poderá ocorrer com os mecanismos de mercado.

Vejam as declarações do ministro britânico na matéria abaixo:

Chris Huhne, ministro britânico da Energia.

UK Govt says $100+ oil price transforms case for low carbon

UK Energy Minister Chris Huhne has said the rising price of oil transforms the economics of energy and that staying addicted to fossil fuels is now the costly, high-risk option.

Setting out his vision for a greener, more secure economy, the Secretary of State said all low-carbon electricity options must remain open if the nation is to meet up to twice today’s demand in 2050, as experts predict.

In a speech today, Huhne stated that the first principle of the low-carbon economy is that it saves energy and the second “is that it will be overwhelmingly electric”.

Delivering the keynote address to CentreForum in London today, Cabinet Minister Huhne added: “A century ago, the streets of New York were served by a thousand electric taxis. Since then, cheap oil and technological change drove electric cars off the roads".

“Now, the pendulum is swinging back. Every month, new electric cars are coming to market. The shift from the petrol pump to the electric plug is already underway.

“In the low-carbon economy, we will turn to the grid to heat our homes and charge our cars. That means a big increase in our demand for electricity. It could double by 2050.

“And that demand must be met with secure, affordable low-carbon supply but our current energy system is not up to the job.”

Huhne said the UK cannot afford to replace the existing power stations with more of the same and described how by the end of the decade, the country must cut its carbon emissions by 34% on 1990 levels and generate 15% of its energy from renewables by 2020, up from 6.7% in 2009.

“With long lead-in times and high capital costs, we must act now to secure a low-carbon supply,” he explained. “Otherwise, we face an energy crunch.”

He described how his plan for low-carbon electricity rests on three pillars:

1- “The first pillar is renewable energy. Like onshore and offshore wind, biomass, energy from waste, solar, marine and micro hydro power,” he described.
2- “The second is new nuclear – without public subsidy.
“Half of my Department’s annual budget is spent cleaning up after past generations of nuclear and coal. Next year, it will reach two-thirds".
“Never again. That is why we are passing the cost of nuclear liabilities on to developers, who will pay the full cost of waste disposal and decommissioning.
3- “And the third pillar is clean coal and gas, delivered by carbon capture and storage. Giving us flexible and reliable energy – without the carbon consequences.
“Together, these technologies will power Britain to 2050 and beyond.”

Huhne said the Government could not simply choose one or two options because the future is so uncertain.
He added: “No one knows what the most successful low-carbon technology will be in 30 years' time".

“The only way to keep the lights on and the skies clean at the lowest possible cost is to build an energy portfolio".

“It is exactly the same principle as a pension fund. When we’re planning for the future, we don’t put all our eggs in one basket".

“It would be equally irresponsible for us to try and play god with the country’s energy future.”

Huhne said the Government's policy was to set the direction towards a low-carbon economy and allow innovation “to take us there”.

But he warned: “We must be clear about this: there will be a cost to the consumer. But it will still be cheaper than the alternatives.

“And in the long term, the fundamentals of the low-carbon economy are not going to be expensive".

“Nick Stern estimated that the overall costs of avoiding dangerous climate change at no more than 2% of GDP by 2050. So if our economy doubles in 40 years, that means a 98% increase instead of a 100% increase. It would barely be noticeable".

“But the oil price reached $100 a barrel in January, which just happens to be the point at which our economists calculate the British consumer breaks even. And the oil price, as we see, could well be higher".

“In the medium term, the US Department of Energy forecasts $108 a barrel by 2020".

If oil prices continue on this trend, and gas prices rise to meet them, then our consumers will be winning hands down".

“Paying less through low-carbon policies than they would pay for fossil fuel policies.”

Huhne described how economists at DECC modelled how a 1970s-style oil price shock would play out today. They found that if the oil price doubled, as from $80 last year to $160 this year, it could lead to a cumulative loss of GDP of around £45 billion over two years.

“This is not just far-off speculation: it is a threat here and now,” he said. “And the faster we move to a low-carbon economy, the more secure and stable our economy will be".

“This transition to the low-carbon economy does not just protect against the threats. It opens up a world of opportunity".

“We must be realistic: rebuilding our energy infrastructure and rebalancing our economy will take time.
“Because the capital investments are so huge, and the replacement cycle so long, change will sometimes seem glacial".

“But it will come. And in the long term, getting off the oil hook will make our economy more independent, more secure and more stable".

“Because the cost of investing in low-carbon energy and security of supply pales in comparison to the costs of dangerous climate change and energy dependency. And there are real economic opportunities up for grabs".

“Already, we are making progress".

“Carbon emissions are down. The international negotiations are back on track. The Green Deal is on the way. We are rebuilding our electricity market. Green growth is here to stay".

“The transition to the low-carbon economy is underway. It is up to us to see it through.”


FONTE: Click Green